West Bloomfield, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

480
FXUS63 KDTX 010917
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
517 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool and dry to finish the weekend before a notable
warm-up ensues early next week.

- Showers and storms to return on Wednesday, with additional rain to
end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Building heights and a dry airmass in place will result in clear to
mostly clear skies today with just some passing warm advection high
clouds tonight and especially Monday morning. Northwest winds mostly
on the light side today, but a few gusts of 15 to 20 knots expected
during peak heating.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms expected through Monday.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

DISCUSSION...

Benign weather conditions to finish the weekend period. Resident
environment marked by deep layer stability held within confluent mid
level northwest flow, as upper heights build modestly atop existing
surface high pressure. Noted increase in mean thicknesses under full
insolation will offset persistent low level northerly flow,
affording a modest initial warming trend of an existing seasonably
cool airmass. Late day temperatures ranging from mid 60s to around
70 degrees. Window of meaningful radiational cooling afforded by
lingering surface ridging early tonight, before an ensuing increase
low level warm air advection emerges late. Lows mid 40s to lower
50s.

Noteworthy warming trend on track for the early week period. Low
level flow veers to south/southwest early Monday in response to
exiting surface ridging. This will establish a period of pronounced
warm air advection starting Monday, with 6-8 degrees of warming
across the 850-925 mb layer. This will bring temperatures back
solidly into the 80 degree range, but with humidity remaining
manageable given limited moisture transport owing to lack of depth
to southwest flow. High amplitude upper level ridge anchored over
the central conus will then make greater inroads Monday night and
Tuesday. This evolution within the background of continued low level
southwest flow will support highs of mid-upper 80s Tuesday. Stable
profile with no tangible forced ascent evident maintains a dry
forecast.

Consolidation of shortwave energy occurs upstream early in the week,
with a gradual eastward propagation of the elongated height fall
gradient with time. This will ease an attendant frontal boundary
across the region sometime within the Wednesday window. Prospective
convective development during the daylight period tied to a
combination of frontal convergence and modest vorticity advection in
the presence of a moist and at least weakly unstable profile.
Frontal timing relative to pace of diurnal boundary layer
destabilization will carry significant weight in determining
convective vigor, particularly as mid level lapse rates may remain
limited. Frontal boundary stalls near or just south of the area Wed
night, before a stronger mid level wave ejecting into the prevailing
mid level southwest flow draws this frontal zone back northward
Thursday. This occurs as a plume of deeper moisture accompanies a
surface wave tied to the main height fall center into the region.
Exact details still quite dependent on trajectory at this stage, but
potential does exist for some intervals of heavier rainfall should
ascent align locally with a longer residence time.

MARINE...

Weak area of high pressure builds over the region today though we
will still a northwesterly wind as there will still be a slight
gradient in between the exiting low pressure system and this inbound
high. The high will drift southward into the Ohio Valley tonight and
then eastward to the Atlantic Coast which will eventually set up a
southwesterly wind on Monday ahead of the next cold front draped
over the Midwest. Overall quiet conditions across the waters to
start the week.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....sf
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......DRK

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